Introduction and motivation
We have been living with COVID-19 for a long time since the beginning of 2020, as of 1 September 2021, more than 218 million cases and 4.52 million deaths have been confirmed, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in history. Besides that the pandemic has resulted in severe global social and economic disruption, including the largest global recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Therefore, the analysis of the virus is very valuable. In this blog post, I will first introduce the basic knowledge of the virus and then focus on the current situation of COVID-19 in the Poland.
What is Covid-19
The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
COVID-19 symptoms range from unnoticeable to life-threatening. Severe illness is more likely in elderly patients, as well as those who have certain underlying medical conditions. The disease transmits when people breathe in air contaminated by droplets and small airborne particles. The risk of breathing these in is highest when people are in close proximity, but still present over longer distances, particularly indoors. Transmission can also occur if splashed or sprayed with contaminated fluids in the eyes, nose, or mouth, and, rarely, via contaminated surfaces. People remain contagious for up to 20 days, and can spread the virus even if they do not develop any symptoms.
Data description
There are three datasets be used in this post one is from Rami Krispin (2021) ,European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2021) and owid’s github (2021).
The first dataset was downloaded from the Github repository of RamiKrispin’s github Repository. This dataset has 496488 number of observations and 7 number of variables. It is about the number of cases which is confirmed, recover or dead beacuse of covid-19 in each country, it cover the data from 2020-01-22 and Hopkins University (2021) updated on a daily bases. Because of it we can get the newest information from it. The raw data pulled from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE) Coronavirus repository.
The second dataset was maintained by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. This dataset has 85435 number of observations and 12 number of variables. It is about the data on COVID-19 vaccination in the EU/EEA and updated twice a week (every Tuesday and Friday). This data covers data from the 52nd week of 2020 to the 37th week of 2021.
The third dataset is from owid’s github Repository. This dataset has 117021 number of observations and 62 number of variables. It covers information on diagnoses, hospitals and government response capacity in each country. It is also updated daily. This data covers data from 2020-01-01 until now.
Data Limitation
The raw data, especially the data from Rami Krispin (2021) and owid’s github (2021), may be due to statistical techniques, government policies, etc., some of the data in some countries are empty. I ignored these null values in my analysis.
In addition, I found some mistakes when using the data, for example, some numbers that should not be negative were counted as negative numbers, and I chose to convert them into positive numbers in the analysis below.
Global overview
| Global overview | |
|---|---|
| Total cases from 2020-01-22 to 2021-09-15 | |
| Total confirmed cases (case) |
Total death (case) |
| 227055138 | 4670253 |
| Source: Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering | |
From table 1, We can see that globally, as of 2021-09-15, there have been227055138 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including 4670253 deaths, reported to WHO. COVID-19 has already caused us so much loss and pain.
Figure 1: Global map about comfirmed and death cases on 2021-09-15
(You can select the data type you want to see in the upper right pane. Put mouse on each circle you can see the detail about country names and the number of them.)
The figure 1 show us the reported cases on 2021-09-15. In terms of daily numbers, the main confirmations of late have been in America, Europe or South-east Asia. Perhaps due to differences in government policies, culture, surveillance, accuracy of reporting and so on, the number of confirmed cases in east Asia and Africa is relatively low. The distribution of death data also roughly matched that of confirmed cases.
Covid-19 in Poland
Poland, officially the Republic of Poland,is a country located in Central Europe. It is divided into 16 administrative provinces, covering an area of 312,696 km2 (120,733 sq mi), and has a largely temperate seasonal climate.Poland has a population of nearly 38.5 million people, and is the fifth-most populous member state of the European Union.Warsaw is the nation’s capital and largest metropolis.
The following analysis focus on Covid-19 in Poland. The Poland has seen a recent decline in cases of COVID-19 infections and deaths, possibly due to previous restrictions. But some recent policies, such as the opening of tourism and entertainment venues, still increase the potential for a rebound. Below, I would like to present an overview of the development and current situation of COVID-19 in Poland from two aspects: infection and vaccination.
Story1 : Covid-19 Cases in Poland
In this section, we can see the development of the number of CONFIRMED COVID-19 cases, deaths, recoveries and virus tests in Poland.
Figure 2: Cases in Poland
The figure 2 show us the trend of COVID-19 diagnoses, deaths and recoveries in the Polannd. In general, all three values experienced two peaks, in November and December 2020 and March and April 2021. And the number of deaths and recoveries peaked later than the number of confirmed cases.
The highest number of COVID-19 cases was on April 1, 2021, when more than 35,000 cases were confirmed in a single day. But the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has dropped significantly recently, reaching 37 in a single day in July 2020. However, there has been a slight uptick in the number of confirmed cases, rising to 724 on September 16, 2020.
The highest number of COVID-19 deaths in Poland also occurred in April 2020, when 956 people died in a single day on 8 April 2020. But the daily death toll has dropped sharply recently, remaining steady at around 10. And the number of deaths fluctuates less sharply than the other two.
The peak of COVID-19 recovery cases in Poland also occurred in April 2020, with more than 35,000 people recovering in a single day on 10 April 2020. Compared with the number of confirmed cases, the recovery rate is relatively high.
Overall, the recovery rate from COVID-19 is still relatively high. However, the death data and recent rebound in diagnoses cannot be ignored. Are these figures reliable? Are there many people who have not been tested for COVID-19? Below is information on virus testing and diagnosis rates.
Figure 3: Daily tests vs. Daily new confirmed cases per million
(Each dot represents a country, you can use the mouse to explore the specific value of each dot, the red dot represents the Poland)
This graph 3 shows the average number of COVID-19 tests and diagnoses per million people in Poland. Of all the countries, Poland’s testing rate was very low, about 1,038 tests per million people, but the number of confirmed cases reached 158. Overall, compared with other countries, the number of confirmed rate in Poland is relatively high. But it also shows that Poland’s tests may not have been enough.
The main effective response to COVID-19 right now is a vaccine. Below is information about vaccination in Poland.
Story2 : COVID-19 Vaccination in Poland
| vac_dose_rate | full_dose_rate |
|---|---|
| 57.96002 | 43.40534 |
This table 2 shows Poland’s vaccination rates to date. More than 50 percent of the population has been vaccinated, and more than 37 percent have been full vaccinated. In contrast, the first vaccination rate in the European Union has reached 66 percent, and 60 percent of the population has been full vaccinated. Poland still needs to increase the number of vaccinations.
Below is a chart of the total number of vaccines received per week.
Figure 4: The number of vaccinations
The figure 4 shows the trend of vaccination in the Poland.
In general, the lowest number of people were vaccinated at the beginning and more recently. Both the first and second doses saw the fastest growth in the first half of 2020, but recent growth has been slow. The first dose has now exceeded 1986.17 million. More than 143.857 million people have been vaccinated.
And we can see that almost all of the people who have been vaccinated have completed full of their vaccinations, which implies that fewer people have chosen to start vaccination recently.
Here are the weekly numbers, and we can see the percentage of people choosing different brands of vaccine.
Figure 5: Number of weekly COVID-19 vaccinations by each brand
The figure 5 shows the vaccinations from 2021-08-23 to 2021-08-29, and we can see the brands that people were vaccinated with last week.
The first dose peaked in the 19th week of 2020, and the second dose peaked in the 23rd week of 2020. These two peaks also meet the need for the interval between the first and second doses of vaccine. But with both the first and second doses, the number of recent vaccinations has dropped dramatically.
Overall, people were more likely to choose the COM vaccine regardless of the first or second dose. In particular, almost no one chose to take other brands of vaccines recently. It should be noted that the second dose cannot be observed in the table because the Johnson & Johnson vaccine requires only one dose.
If you want to know latest policy please search Government of the Poland.
Conclusion
COVID-19 is still raging around the world today and has taken a huge toll on humanity.
In Poland, although the number of confirmed cases has decreased recently, there are still a lot of new cases every day, still need to pay attention to.
Poland’s number of confirmed cases and deaths has reached two peaks in November 2020 and March 2021 and dropped sharply in recent days from its high point. But compared with recent July, there has been a slight rebound.
Compared with other countries, Poland’s detection rate was lower and positive rate was higher.
Overall, the number of vaccinations in Poland peaked in the first half of 2020. But vaccination rates are low compared with those in the European Union. And there has been a sharp drop in the number of vaccinations recently.
And perhaps because of vaccine availability, or personal choice, Poles are more likely to get the COM vaccine.
While the virus is still raging, there are some hopeful signs that this health crisis will end. Countries are succeeding in containing the virus using social-distancing practices, testing, and contact tracing, at least for now, and treatments and vaccines may develop sooner than expected.
I hope all of us can establish a correct understanding of the virus, not too panic, but also actively protect ourself and pay attention to the information around us.
Thanks for reading, if you have any comments and suggestions, please contact me through the contact information in about me page.
Acknowledgments
- The following packages are used to produce this report: tidyverse (Wickham 2021), leaflet (Cheng, Karambelkar, and Xie 2021), ggplot2 (Wickham 2016), plotly (Sievert 2020), viridis(Garnier et al. 2021), gganimate (Pedersen and Robinson 2020), gt (Iannone, Cheng, and Schloerke 2021), hrbrthemes (Rudis 2020), kableExtra(Zhu 2021).
- The basic knowledge about covid-19 and Poland is from wikipedia (2021) , Government of the Poland Homepage (2021) and Coronavirus Disease - COVID-19 (2021).